Project: 2022 (Research in Applied Economics - RAE)

A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis on the Impacts of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) on Environmental Degradation: Evidence from 12 South-East Asian Countries 2005-2017

with Muhammad Alif Iman Asmal

Link to Project: econsilience.ameuglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Econsilience-Alif.pdf

Link to Poster: BCUR Alif Poster (krinstitute.org)

The Undergraduate Research Support Scheme (URSS) Project:  2023
The Confidence Gap – Exploring Self Confidence and its Effects on Gender Wage Disparities 
with Sudeshna Mallik

This paper delves into the potential relationship between self-perceived confidence and the gender wage gap in modern day society. While traditional explanations for wage disparities have primarily been centered around tangible factors such as education, experience and job roles, this study highlights the often-overlooked psychological aspect of self-confidence. Using cross-sectional data of "Understanding Society" surveys, this paper employs an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach, using "sex" as the instrumental variable, to examine the impact of selfconfidence on earnings. The results indicate a notable "confidence gap" in the labour market, further suggesting that self-perceived confidence plays a significant role in shaping wage outcomes. The paper concludes with a call for targeted interventions, like confidence-building workshops and negotiation training, to mitigate the effects of this confidence disparity and promote a more equitable professional landscape where talent is valued over perceptions of confidence.

Link to Project: The Confidence Gap – Exploring Self-Confidence and its Effects on Gender Wage Disparities · URSS SHOWCASE (warwick.ac.uk)

Institute for Advanced Teaching and Learning (IATL) Project:  2024
Institute for Advanced Teaching and Learning (IATL) (warwick.ac.uk)
Yield Curve and Optimal Fly 
with Remus Bogdan Pintilie 

The yield curve, also known as the term structure of interest rates, and its behaviour are two of the most monitored aspects that economists, investors, traders, and other fixed income enthusiasts pay attention to. This project covers my efforts to model the term structure of the US treasuries yield curve, forecast its evolution, and choose a profit-maximizing contract that would reward me for my work. There are several techniques to model and forecast the yield curve. This project will cover the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average time series model (ARIMA), the Long Short-Term Memory machine learning model (LSTM), and the Lasso Regression to predict the yield curve. Derivatives allow investors and traders to create payoff structures tailored to their goals. A fly or butterfly is a delta-neutral limited risk options strategy preferred for its fixed and known downside and upside. The report will cover the steps I took to identify the optimal (i.e., profit-maximizing) fly.​

Project:  RAE - 2024 

The Effect of AI Investment Announcements on Adopting Companies Abnormal Returns: A Critical Analysis of the UK Market

with Balaaj Bhatti
While artificial intelligence (AI) has become increasingly prevalent, empirical evidence on its impact on firm value is limited. This inaugural UK market study uses event study methodology to assess stock market reactions to AI investment announcements by FTSE 100 companies from 2019-2023. Analysing 138 announcements from 53 companies, the research reveals that AI investments have a marginally positive, but statistically insignificant impact of 0.114% on the announcement day, affirmed by both parametric and non-parametric tests. Further subsample analysis shows that high credit rating firms and early adopters experience significantly negative impacts on firm value, indicating investor risk-aversion and a clear second-mover advantage. Cross-sectional analysis demonstrates that industry and the type of AI investment critically influence returns, and confirms the size effect with larger firms experiencing more negative returns than smaller ones. Earnings before interest, taxes and amortization (EBITDA) margins and cyber risk ratings, however, do not significantly impact returns. This study advances AI literature by examining market dynamics associated with AI investments, providing a foundation for future research, and providing practical insights for investors and corporate managers aiming to maximize risk-adjusted returns and firm value. 
Available at: (PDF) The Effect of AI Investment Announcements on Adopting Companies Abnormal Returns: A Critical Analysis of the UK Market (researchgate.net)​

Project:  RAE - 2024​

Stock Price Forecasting Using Fundamental Analysis vs.ChatGPT∗ An Economic Evaluation

with Camila Li
RAE Project Topics 2024
The return and volatility spill-over across the green bond market and agricultural commodity markets
Meiqi Yu
The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Supply Side in the European Union: a VAR-based Approach
Max Beverly 
Financial Market herding in Crises: Evidence on the US Health Care Sector
Angie Wong 
The impact of ESG considerations on the performance outcomes of acquiring companies post MA —evidence from G7 countries
Xi Yang 
Capital Structure on Financial Performance in Chinese Technological Sector - A Panel Causality
Lina Tang 
Examining the Economic Impacts of Air Transport in Indian States
Anish Gupta 
The Spill-over Effects of US Monetary Policy on South American Stock Markets
Samuel Alfredo Leon Goetschel
Some Examples of RAE Project Topics 2023
The Effect of M&A Announcements on Acquiring Company Stock Returns. A Critical Analysis of UK Banking Sector M&A’s
Aly Maghraby
The effectiveness of monetary policy in the North and South Eurozone: Evidence from Covid-19
Jenny Turnbull
Time-varying Correlation Between US Equity and Global Commodity Returns: Implications for Portfolio Allocation
Shervin Yousseffi 
The Impact of Acquisition Premiums on Returns in Corporate M&A
Seyed Ahlesaadat